Contents

Preface

Acknowledgments

Terms of reference

Introduction

Synopsis of key points

1 A decision-making framework

1.1 The costs of mitigation
1.2 Risk and uncertainty
1.3 Four types of benefits from mitigation
1.4 How effective adaptation reduces the costs of climate change
1.5 Measuring the benefits of mitigation against the costs
1.6 A graphical representation of the benefits and costs
1.7 Valuing the future relative to the present

2 Understanding climate science

2.1 The earth’s atmosphere
2.2 Understanding climate change
2.3 Linking emissions and climate change
2.4 The task of global mitigation

3 Emissions in the Platinum Age

3.1 Greenhouse gas emissions by source and country
3.2 Recent trends in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels
3.3 Existing emissions projections
3.4 The Review’s no-mitigation projections: methodology and assumptions
3.5 Results from the Review’s projections and comparisons with existing projections
3.6 The impact of high energy prices
3.7 Resource limits

4 Projecting global climate change

4.1 How has the climate changed?
4.2 Understanding climate change projections
4.3 Projected climate change for the three emissions cases
4.4 Assessing the climate risk

5 Projecting Australian climate change

5.1 Attributing climate change to humans
5.2 How has the climate changed in Australia?
5.3 Projected climate change in Australia

6 Climate change impacts on Australia

6.1 Understanding Australia’s vulnerability to climate change
6.2 Australia without global mitigation
6.3 Direct impacts of climate change on Australia
6.4 Indirect impacts of climate change on Australia

7 Australia’s emissions in a global context

7.1 Australia’s emissions profile and international comparisons
7.2 Emissions profiles of Australian industries

8 Assessing the international response

8.1 The evolving international framework for addressing climate change
8.2 National commitments and policies to mitigate climate change
8.3 Assessment of progress under the Kyoto Protocol
8.4 Projections given the current trajectory of mitigation effort
8.5 Accelerating progress

9 Towards global agreement

9.1 Agreeing on a global goal
9.2 What form should national commitments take?
9.3 A graduated approach to national commitments
9.4 Principles for allocating emissions entitlements across countries
9.5 Modelling a per capita approach to the allocation of emissions entitlements
9.6 Reaching agreement on 550 or 450: is it possible?

10 Deepening global collaboration

10.1 International public funding for mitigation
10.2 International public funding for adaptation
10.3 Promoting collaborative research to assist developing countries
10.4 International trade in emissions rights
10.5 Price-based sectoral agreements for the trade-exposed, emissions-intensive sectors
10.6 Climate change and trade policy
10.7 International aviation and shipping
10.8 Land-use change and forestry
10.9 Enforcement mechanisms

11 Costing climate change and its avoidance

11.1 The three global scenarios
11.2 Comparing the costs of climate change and mitigation
11.3 Modelling mitigation
11.4 The decision to mitigate
11.5 How much mitigation?

12 Targets and trajectories

12.1 Determining our conditional and unconditional targets
12.2 The benefits of global cooperation
12.3 Solving a diabolical problem in stages
12.4 Hastening progress towards greater emissions reductions
12.5 Moving from a 550 to a 450 goal
12.6 Does Australia matter for global mitigation?
12.7 Interim targets
12.8 Implications for an Australian emissions trading scheme

13 An Australian policy framework

13.1 Confronting uncertainty: the policy challenges of climate change
13.2 Avoiding the greatest market failure ever seen
13.3 Bungling Australia’s emissions trading scheme

14 An Australian emissions trading scheme

14.1 The framework to guide efficient scheme design
14.2 Elemental design features
14.3 Releasing permits into the market
14.4 Lowering the costs of meeting targets
14.5 Addressing the distortion faced by trade-exposed, emissions-intensive industries
14.6 Transition period: Australia’s emissions trading scheme to the end of 2012
14.7 Governance: institutional arrangements
14.8 Addressing the relationships between an emissions trading scheme and other policies
14.9 Summary of design features of an Australian emissions trading scheme

15 Adaptation and mitigation measures for Australia

15.1 Information and understanding
15.2 The role of markets and market-based policies
15.3 Scaling the challenges: five examples

16 Sharing the burden in Australia

16.1 Effects of mitigation policy in the short term
16.2 A framework for government intervention
16.3 Long-term impacts and structural change

17 Information barriers to known technologies

17.1 The impact of information and agency barriers
17.2 Information barriers
17.3 Principal–agent problems
17.4 Minimum performance standards

18 The innovation challenge

18.1 What is innovation?
18.2 Ensuring optimal levels of early research
18.3 Rewarding early movers
18.4 Overcoming barriers from technological lock-in

19 Network infrastructure

19.1 The transmission of electricity
19.2 The distribution of electricity
19.3 Gas transmission infrastructure
19.4 The transportation of carbon dioxide
19.5 The transport of passengers and freight
19.6 Water supply infrastructure
19.7 The planning of urban settlements

20 Transforming energy

20.1 The energy sector today
20.2 Drivers of the transformation
20.3 The transformation
20.4 Modelling results for the energy sector
20.5 Major economic impacts
20.6 Risks to the transformation

21 Transforming transport

21.1 The role of transport and its current structure
21.2 Causes of the transformation
21.3 Economic modelling results: a possible future?
21.4 The path to transformation: a picture of future transport
21.5 Fostering the transformation

22 Transforming rural land use

22.1 Drivers of a transformation towards lower emissions
22.2 Economic modelling results: a possible future?
22.3 An alternative future
22.4 Barriers and limits to a low-emissions future

23 Towards a low-emissions economy

23.1 The dynamics of economic adjustment with global mitigation
23.2 The economy to and at 550 ppm
23.3 The difference between 550 and 450
23.4 Australia in the low-emissions world energy economy
23.5 The downside risks
23.6 The upside in technology assumptions
23.7 The importance of flexible global and national markets
23.8 The importance of education and training
23.9 Global mitigation and ongoing prosperity
23.10 Australia in a successful world of change

Fateful decisions

List of figures and tables

List of shortened forms

Glossary