List of figures and tables

Figures

Figure 1.1 The risk–uncertainty spectrum
Figure 1.2 A probability distribution
Figure 1.3 The four types of climate change impacts
Figure 1.4 Utility with and without mitigation
Figure 1.5 Utility under a more ambitious level of mitigation
Figure 1.6 Utility with more climate change impacts taken into account

Figure 2.1 Trends in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide since 1750
Figure 2.2 A stylised model of the natural greenhouse effect and other influences on the energy balance of the climate system
Figure 2.3 Contribution of human and natural factors to warming since 1750
Figure 2.4 Steps in the causal chain of greenhouse gas emissions leading to climate change
Figure 2.5 Effect on extremes of temperature from an increase in mean temperature, an increase in variance, and an increase in both mean temperature and variance
Figure 2.6 Inertia in the climate system
Figure 2.7 Response of different carbon sinks to the rate of emissions over time
Figure 2.8 Different pathways of emissions reductions over time to achieve the same concentration target
Figure 2.9 Temperature outcomes of varying levels of overshooting
Figure 2.10 Emissions pathways required to achieve a low concentration target following an overshoot

Figure 3.1 The 20 largest greenhouse gas emitters: total emissions and cumulative share (%) of global emissions, c. 2004
Figure 3.2 The 20 largest greenhouse gas emitters: per capita emissions including and excluding emissions from land-use change and forestry, c. 2004
Figure 3.3 CO2 emissions/GDP, energy/GDP and CO2 emissions/energy for the world, OECD and non-OECD, 1971–2005 (1971 = 1)
Figure 3.4 Energy intensities of GDP for China and other developing countries, 1970–2005
Figure 3.5 The reference case: global population, GDP and GDP per capita, 2001 to 2100
Figure 3.6 The reference case: global population, GDP, GDP per capita, and CO2-e emissions, 2000 to 2100—average growth rates by decade
Figure 3.7 Shares in global output of various countries and regions, 2001 to 2100, under the reference case
Figure 3.8 Global CO2 emissions growth rates from fossil fuels and industrial processes to 2030: a comparison of Garnaut Review no-mitigation projections with SRES and post-SRES scenarios and historical data
Figure 3.9 Global greenhouse gas emissions growth rates to 2030: a comparison of Garnaut Review no-mitigation projections, SRES and post-SRES scenarios, and historical data
Figure 3.10 Global greenhouse gas emissions to 2100: a comparison of Garnaut Review no-mitigation projections and various SRES scenarios
Figure 3.11 China total energy consumption, levels and growth, 1978 to 2006
Figure 3.12 Oil, gas and coal prices, 1970 to 2008
Figure 3.13 Global energy use and CO2 emissions, 1970 to 2007

Figure 4.1 Selected regional climate change observations
Figure 4.2 Average global air temperature anomalies, 1850–2005
Figure 4.3 Global average sea-level rise, 1870–2005
Figure 4.4 Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere for the three emissions cases, 1990–2100
Figure 4.5 Global average temperature outcomes for three emissions cases, 1990–2100
Figure 4.6 Spatial variation in temperature change in 2100 for the three emissions cases
Figure 4.7 Temperature increases above 1990 levels for the three emissions cases
Figure 4.8 Abrupt or rapid climate change showing the lack of response until a threshold is reached

Figure 5.1 Australian annual average temperature anomalies, 1910–2007
Figure 5.2 Annual streamflows into Perth’s dams (excluding Stirling and Samson dams)
Figure 5.3 Best estimate (50th percentile) of Australian annual temperature change at 2030, 2070 and 2100 under three emissions cases

Figure 6.1 Vulnerability and its components
Figure 6.2 State and territory impacts of climate change by 2100 under the no-mitigation case

Figure 7.1 Per capita greenhouse gas emissions
Figure 7.2 Greenhouse gas emissions by sector, 1990 and 2006
Figure 7.3 Greenhouse gas emissions by sector: 1990, 2006 and reference case scenarios
Figure 7.4 Per capita emissions due to energy use, 2005
Figure 7.5 Factors underlying per capita energy emissions, 2005
Figure 7.6 Fuel mix contributing to total primary energy supply, 2005
Figure 7.7 Trends in average emissions intensity of primary energy supply, Australia and OECD, 1971–2005
Figure 7.8 Primary energy consumption in Australia, by sector, 2005–06
Figure 7.9 Per capita emissions due to electricity, 2005
Figure 7.10 Factors underlying per capita electricity emissions, 2005
Figure 7.11 Per capita emissions due to transport, 2005
Figure 7.12 Factors underlying per capita transport emissions
Figure 7.13 Per capita emissions due to agricultural production
Figure 7.14 Per capita area of forested and wooded land, 2005
Figure 7.15 Emissions attributable to Australian industry by sector, 2006
Figure 7.16 Emissions attributable to the Australian mining and manufacturing industries, disaggregated by sector, 2005
Figure 7.17 Ratio of permit costs to value of production, 2005
Figure 7.18 Direct emissions intensity of Australia’s agriculture industry compared with selected OECD countries, 2006

Figure 8.1 Kyoto targets and 2005 emissions, relative to 1990

Figure 9.1 Different concentration goals: stabilisation, overshooting and peaking
Figure 9.2 Different cumulative emissions from the same end-year target (y)
Figure 9.3 Emissions trajectories for the no-mitigation, 550 and 450 scenarios, 2000–2100
Figure 9.4 Per capita emissions entitlements for the 550 scenario, 2012–2050
Figure 9.5 Per capita emissions entitlements for the 450 scenario, 2012–2050

Figure 10.1 Energy research and development expenditure by the public and private sectors in the United States

Figure 11.1 Australia’s carbon prices under different mitigation scenarios and technological assumptions
Figure 11.2 The modelled expected market costs (median case) for Australia of unmitigated climate change, 2013 to 2100 (Type 1 costs only)
Figure 11.3 Change in annual Australian GNP growth (percentage points lost or gained) due to gross mitigation costs under the 550 scenario strategy compared to no mitigation, and under standard and enhanced technology assumptions, 2013–50
Figure 11.4 Change in annual Australian GNP growth (percentage points lost or gained) due to net mitigation costs under the 550 scenario compared to no mitigation, 2013–2100
Figure 11.5 Change in Australian sectoral growth rates (percentage points lost or gained) due to net mitigation costs under the 550 scenario compared to no mitigation, 2013–2100
Figure 11.6 A comparison of the modelled expected market costs for Australia of unmitigated and mitigated climate change up to 2100 (Type 1 costs only)
Figure 11.7 Change in annual Australian GNP growth (percentage points lost or gained) due to gross mitigation costs under the 450 compared to the 550 scenario and under standard and enhanced technology assumptions, 2013–50
Figure 11.8 Change in annual Australian GNP growth (percentage points lost or gained) due to net mitigation costs under the 450 compared to the 550 scenario, 2013–2100

Figure 12.1 Australian emissions reductions trajectories to 2050 (reduction in total emissions)
Figure 12.2 Australian emissions reductions trajectories to 2050 (per capita reduction)

Figure 15.1 Areas for further support and investment in the climate change research system
Figure 15.2 Impact of climate change on probability loss distribution and implications for risk capital requirements

Figure 16.1 How will an emissions price flow through the economy?
Figure 16.2 Expenditure on basic goods as a share of disposable income

Figure 17.1 Residential per capita electricity consumption in the United States, California and as predicted for California

Figure 18.1 The innovation chain
Figure 18.2 Market failures along the innovation chain

Figure 19.1 Major sequestration sites and carbon dioxide sources in Australia

Figure 20.1 Installed electricity generation capacity, 2005–06
Figure 20.2 Comparison of industrial electricity prices
Figure 20.3 Average electricity market prices, 1999–2008
Figure 20.4 International energy commodity prices, indexed to 1994
Figure 20.5 Australia’s electricity demand
Figure 20.6 Electricity demand reduction in selected sectors, 550 scenario
Figure 20.7 Residential demand, 2005–2100
Figure 20.8 Australia’s electricity technology shares, 550 scenario
Figure 20.9 Australia’s electricity generation technology shares, 550 scenario with zero-leakage carbon capture and storage
Figure 20.10 Australia’s electricity generation technology shares, 450 scenario
Figure 20.11 Electricity emissions intensity
Figure 20.12 Total wholesale electricity costs, with and without nuclear, 550 scenario
Figure 20.13 Technology mix under an enhanced technology scenario
Figure 20.14 Wholesale electricity prices, 2005–50
Figure 20.15 Electricity generated from coal
Figure 20.16 Generation capacity, 550 scenario
Figure 20.17 Generation capacity, 450 scenario
Figure 20.18 Carbon capture and storage scenarios
Figure 20.19 Projections for aluminium and alumina industries
Figure 20.20 Electricity from gas sources

Figure 21.1 Australian domestic transport emissions, 2006
Figure 21.2 Passenger travel per capita by various modes, 1970–71 to 2006–07
Figure 21.3 Emissions intensity of passenger modes, 2007
Figure 21.4 Projected emissions from the domestic transport sector with standard technology assumptions, 2006–2100
Figure 21.5 Breakdown of transport sector emissions in the 550 standard technology scenario, 2006–2100

Figure 21.6 Modelling of road transport fuel use in a 550 standard technology scenario
Figure 21.7 Average new car emissions and oil price, January 2002 – April 2008
Figure 21.8 Trip mode, population and emissions in 57 high-income cities, 1995–96
Figure 21.9 Mode share for journeys to work in Australian capital cities 1976–2006

Figure 22.1 Prices paid by Australian farmers, 1998–2007
Figure 22.2 Australian farmers’ terms of trade, 1998–2007
Figure 22.3 Non-combustion emissions for agriculture, forestry and land-use change for the no-mitigation and 550 standard technology scenarios
Figure 22.4 Change in emissions intensity over time in response to carbon price, 550 standard technology scenario, 2006–2100
Figure 22.5 Contribution to Australia’s agricultural emissions, by subsector, 2005
Figure 22.6 Ratio of emissions permit costs to value of production, by subsector, 2005
Figure 22.7 Australian real retail prices for meat, 1960–2006
Figure 22.8 Australian per capita consumption of meat, 1960–2006
Figure 22.9 Per capita area of forested and wooded land, 2005
Figure 22.10 Carbon removal potential for environmental plantings (tonnes CO2-e per ha per year)

Figure 23.1 Australia’s emissions in the 550 backstop scenario (global entitlement, net of trading)
Figure 23.2 Sources of mitigation under the 550 backstop scenario
Figure 23.3 Direct emissions per million dollars value added, 2005
Figure 23.4 Direct and indirect emissions per million dollars value added, mining and manufacturing, 2005
Figure 23.5 Emissions sources (not including forestry) in the 550 backstop technology scenario
Figure 23.6 Australia’s emissions in the 450 backstop technology scenario (global entitlement, net of trading)
Figure 23.7 Total emissions for the no-mitigation, 450 and 550 backstop scenarios
Figure 23.8 Sources of mitigation under the 450 backstop technology scenario
Figure 23.9 Emissions sources (not including forestry) in the 450 backstop technology scenario

Tables

Table 2.1 Sources of greenhouse gases
Table 2.2 Estimates of the amount of carbon stored in different sinks in 1750 and how they have changed

Table 3.1 Growth in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, GDP and energy
Table 3.2 Shares of total greenhouse gas emissions by country/region in the Garnaut–Treasury reference case
Table 3.3 Time to exhaustion of current estimates of reserves and reserve base for various metals and minerals, and fossil fuels

Table 4.1 Summary of extreme climate responses, high-consequence outcomes and ranges for tipping points for the three emissions cases by 2100

Table 5.1 Projected changes to statewide annual average rainfall, best-estimate outcome in a no-mitigation case (per cent change relative to 1990)
Table 5.2 Projected changes to statewide average rainfall, dry and wet outcomes in a no-mitigation case (per cent change relative to 1990)
Table 5.3 Projected increases in days over 35°C for all capital cities under a no-mitigation case
Table 5.4 Projected per cent increases in the number of days with very high and extreme fire weather for selected years

Table 6.1 Sectors and areas considered in this chapter
Table 6.2 Climate cases considered by the Review
Table 6.3 Differences between probable unmitigated and mitigated futures at 2100—median of probability distributions
Table 6.4 Decline in value of irrigated agricultural production in the Murray-Darling Basin out to 2100 from a world with no human-induced climate change
Table 6.5 Percentage cumulative yield change from 1990 for Australian wheat under four climate cases
Table 6.6 Magnitude of impacts to water supply infrastructure in major cities under four climate cases
Table 6.7 Infrastructure impacts criteria
Table 6.8 Magnitude of impacts on buildings in coastal settlements under four climate cases
Table 6.9 Change in likely temperature-related deaths due to climate change

Table 7.1 Comparison of the highest per capita emissions among OECD countries (tonnes per person per year)
Table 7.2 Agricultural emissions and land use, land-use change and forestry emissions, by commodity and economic sector, 2005

Table 9.1 2020, 2050 and 2100 global emissions changes for the two global mitigation scenarios, relative to 2001 (per cent)
Table 9.2 Emissions entitlement allocations for 2020 and 2050 relative to 2000–01 and Kyoto/2012 (per cent)
Table 9.3 Emissions entitlement allocations expressed in per capita terms in 2020 and 2050 relative to 2000–01 and Kyoto/2012 (per cent)

Table 11.1 Temperature increases above 1990 levels under the no-mitigation, 550 and 450 scenarios
Table 11.2 Assessing the market impacts of climate change
Table 11.3 Net present cost of the 450 ppm and 550 ppm scenarios (in terms of no-mitigation GNP) and the ‘450 premium’ to 2050 and 2100

Table 12.1 Summary of interim targets in 2020 (per cent)
Table 12.2 Reductions in emissions entitlements by 2050 for policy scenarios (per cent)
Table 12.3 Modelling results in 2020 for policy scenarios

Table 13.1 Attributes of mitigation and adaptation shocks

Table 14.1 Governance of an Australian emissions trading scheme
Table 14.2 Interaction between the emissions trading scheme and the Mandatory Renewable Energy Target
Table 14.3 Overview of the proposed emissions trading scheme design

Table 17.1 Four kinds of principal–agent problems

Table 18.1 Brief assessment of two technology categories against criteria for national strategic interest
Table 18.2 Research and development programs in Australia targeting low-emissions technologies
Table 18.3 Mechanisms for directly subsidising positive externalities in demonstration and commercialisation
Table 18.4 Estimates of private and social rates of return to private research and development spending

Table 21.1 Transport sectors

Table 22.1 Vulnerability of Australia’s agricultural industry to the biophysical impacts of climate change, by subsector
Table 22.2 Potential for emissions per annum reduction and/or removal from Australia’s agriculture, forestry and other land use sectors
Table 22.3 Impact of emissions permit prices on cost of meat production
Table 22.4 Technical potential for CO2 removal by soil—selected estimates
Table 22.5 Estimated oil yield per ha for biodiesel production
Table 22.6 Area of selected land uses in Australia

Table 23.1 Total after-tax per capita income (2005 dollars)
Table 23.2 Annual average growth rates for GNP and GDP under the no-mitigation, 550 and 450 scenarios with backstop technology (Type 1 and Type 2 benefits of mitigation) (per cent)